عنوان مقاله [English]
Fruits dropping, the lesser moth (Batrachedra amydraula Meyrick), spider mite (Oligonychus afrasiaticus McGregor), Date bunch fading and Date palm inflorescence rot diseases (Mauginiella scaettae Cavara) are important injurious factors of date palm. This research was carried out in Abadan region from 2005 to 2014 to study the effects of temperature and humidity stresses on injury severity and simulation of date palm damages prediction model. Four different date palm orchards from four villages were selected and they were sampled monthly for the percentage of date fruit damage until harvest. Climatic data were obtained from Abadan meteorology station. Multivariate regression, thermal and humidity models were used to design the system. Results showed that fruits dropping, the lesser moth, spider mite, date bunch fading and Khamedje diseases damages reached to the maximum at thhe months of April, June, July, September and April coincide with the phenological stage of the Hababok, Kimri, Khark, turning Khark into Rotab and Hababok respectively. The damage of these factors started at temperature 21.4, 21, 26.7, 30.2, 21.4oc and relative humidity 14.7, 20, 14.7, 21.3 and 27.9 gradually increases to 40.9, 36, 50, 50 and 37.6°C respectively. Forecasting model of damage factors have been significant at level 1, 5, 5, 5 and 5 percent respectively. All of the forecasting models had coefficient higher than 0.7 and the detection error less than 25 percent. Among the meteorological indices, relative humidity and rainfall had the most influence on the variations in the severitis of damages.
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