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مقایسه مدل‌های پیشرفت زمانی بیماری سفیدک داخلی انگور در استان خراسان شمالی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 بخش گیاه‌پزشکی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاوزی و منابع طبیعی خراسان شمالی، سازمان تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی کشور، بجنورد، ایرانارشد

2 بخش تحقیقات گیاه‌پزشکی، مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان گلستان، گرگان، ایران

3 گروه گیاه‌پزشکی، دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

4 پژوهشکده ژنتیک و زیست فناوری کشاورزی طبرستان، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

چکیده

سفیدک داخلی انگور (Plasmopara viticola) مهم‌ترین عامل کاهش تولید انگور در مناطق دارای آب و هوای معتدل و پرباران محسوب می‌شود. جهت بررسی منحنی پیشرفت زمانی بیماری در تاکستان‌های استان خراسان شمالی، طی سال‌های 1397 و 1398، از اواسط فروردین‌ماه هم‌زمان با تورم جوانه‌ها، با نمونه‌برداری هفتگی، میزان وقوع و شدت بیماری در 80 تاکستان از چهار شهرستان بجنورد، مانه و سملقان، شیروان و فاروج محاسبه شد. با استفاده از رگرسیون خطی، منحنی‌های پیشرفت زمانی بیماری با پنج مدل‌ رشد جمعیتی به‌عنوان مدل‌های مرسوم شامل نمایی، تک‌مولکولی، لجستیک، لاگ‌لجستیک و گومپرتز که به‌صورت خطی شده بودند، برازش داده شدند. برازش مدل‌ها براساس آماره‌هایی چون ضریب تبیین (R2)، انحراف معیار محاسبات (SEE) و ضریب تبیین تعدیل شده (Ra2) تعیین گردید. نتایج نشان داد که مدل‌های نمایی، تک‌مولکولی، لجستیک، لاگ‌لجستیک و گومپرتز به ترتیب با 5، 5/27، 5/12، 5/17 و 5/37 درصد بیماری در باغات مورد مطالعه برازش دارند. بر این اساس، مدل گومپرتز توانست با ضریب تبیین 76/96 درصد به عنوان مناسب‌ترین مدل جهت توصیف پیشرفت بیماری در استان خراسان شمالی انتخاب گردد. نسبت افزایش مقدار نرخ رشد در هر تاکستان بین 005/0 تا 048/0 ( با میانگین 026/0) بود. این اولین گزارش از بررسی منحنی پیشرفت بیماری سفیدک داخلی انگور در ایران است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

A comparative study on disease progression curves of grapevine downy mildew in North Khorasan province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid namvar-hamzanlue 1
  • Mohammad Aghajani 2
  • Safarali mahdian 3
  • Esmail bakhshandeh 4
1 Plant Protection Department, North Khorasan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Training Center,Agricultural Research,Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Bojnourd, Iran.
2 Plant Protection Research Department, Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Gorgan, Iran.
3 Plant Protection Department, Agricultural Faculty, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
4 Genetics and Agricultural Biotechnology Institue of Tabarestan, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
چکیده [English]

Grapevine downy mildew caused by Plasmopara viticola is the most important factor in decreasing grape production in temperate and rainy regions. To investigate the disease progression curve in vineyards of North Khorasan province during two years of 2018 and 2019, Scoring of the target vineyards was carried out each week on a regular schedule from mid-April at the bud swelling time from the vineyard. The incidence rate and severity of the disease in 80 vineyards from four counties of Bojnourd, Maneh and Samolghan, Shirvan and Farouj were calculated. Linear regression was fitted to disease time progression curves with five population growth models as exponential, monomolecular, logistic, log-logistic and gompertz models. The model fitness was determined based on statistics as coefficient of determination (R2), standard error of estimates (SEE) and adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2). The results showed that exponential, monomolecular, logistic, log-logistic and Gompertz models were fitted with 5, 27.5, 12.5, 17.5 and 37.5% of the disease in the studied gardens, respectively. Accordingly, Gompertz model with 96.76% coefficient of determination was selected as the most suitable model to describe disease progression in North Khorasan province. Rates of increase (rG) per unit of disease in each vineyard was 0.005 to 0.048 (with an average of 0.026). This is the first report of a study of the progression curve of grapevine downy mildew in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "downy mildew"
  • " disease severity"
  • " Gompertz"
  • " linear regression"
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